A group of scientists has introduced a new method to predict the direction of solar storms early on, providing crucial information to protect industries and technologies on Earth and in space. The groundbreaking technique, known as DIRECD or "Dimming InfeRred Estimate of CME Direction," is set to be published in Astronomy & Astrophysics, with the research paper already accessible on the arXiv preprint repository.
Solar storms, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), are massive magnetic plasma bubbles ejected from the sun into space at high speeds. When directed towards Earth, these charged particle bubbles can cause geomagnetic storms and polar auroras, posing risks to both space and ground-based technological systems, as well as astronauts.
Detecting these solar storms early poses a significant challenge, as they typically become visible only at an advanced stage when observed through specialized instruments called coronagraphs. These instruments create an artificial solar eclipse to observe the solar storm. Addressing this challenge, the DIRECD method uses indirect traces of solar storms on the sun—coronal dimmings, which appear as dark areas in extreme ultraviolet images.
Coronal dimmings result from the expansion and ejection of matter from the solar corona during a CME. The DIRECD method builds on earlier research showing the connections between dimming and CME morphology, highlighting the potential of dimmings for early detection and analysis of solar storms.
Shantanu Jain, a Ph.D. student at Skoltech and the main researcher behind this study, shared his excitement about the method's capabilities. He mentioned, "Our approach allows us to get an early understanding of the direction in which the coronal mass ejection (CME) is moving, even before it becomes visible to the coronagraphs on satellites. It's remarkable that we can accurately figure out the 3D details of the CME, like its direction, using just 2D dimming information from solar images, right at the early stages of the solar eruption."
Adding to this, Skoltech Associate Professor Tatiana Podladchikova, a collaborator on the study, explained, "This technique will be especially handy for events directed towards Earth, overcoming challenges linked to the assessment done by coronagraphs situated in the sun-Earth line. These instruments primarily observe the expansion of CMEs rather than their movement. Currently, we are approaching the peak of the 11-year solar cycle, so we can anticipate witnessing more sunspots, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections erupting from the sun."
This pioneering research opens up new possibilities for improving space weather prediction capabilities, offering potential benefits for industries dependent on satellite communication, airlines, power grids, communications, transportation, pipelines, and emergency services. As solar activities continue to play a crucial role in our interconnected technological systems, the DIRECD method emerges as a vital tool for forecasting and mitigating the impacts of solar storms.
The research was conducted in collaboration with scientists from NorthWest Research Associates, the University of Graz, and its Kanzelhöhe Observatory.